Published 11 Jan 07

FUTURE JIHAD – Terrorist Strategies against the West and other Democracies

by Walid Phares, Ph.D.
World Defense Review columnist

(The paperback is out – WALID PHARES EXPLAINS … )

The international version of Professor Walid Phares' Future Jihad is now released. The new title is "Terrorist Strategies against the West" (Palgrave/St Martin; New York and London, December 2006). The paperback includes a long chapter on the Jihadist movement strategies around the world.

Following are adapted excerpts:

During the year Future Jihad was published in America, significant developments further proved true the conclusions of the initial book. In one single year, before and after its publication a series of declarations by the Jihadists, by international leaders and by intellectuals on all sides of the conflict, signaled that the "War on Terrorism" was after all an all-out confrontation between a worldwide Web of Islamist movements and regimes on the one hand and a dispersed international community, some of which was engaged, while parts of it weren't in this world war, on the other hand.

My first objective was to explain basic facts to the international public community: That there was an ideological current out there, aiming at world domination, which he defined as "Jihadism." The latter comes from two trees, one is Salafi the other is Khomeinist. The Salafists, formed in Sunni environment, are inspired by middle ages doctrinaires and have emerged in modern times as Wahabis, Muslim Brotherhoods, Takfiris, Deobandis, Tablighi and others. They want the reestablishment of a modern day Caliphate. They feel they are the heirs of 14 centuries of history and reject modern international law. The Khumeinists are the Jihadists who emerged in the Shiia community. They aim at establishing an Imamate to reunify all Muslims under their guidance in pursuit of Jihad.

The books' second objective was to show how Jihadists view the world, its modern history, its international relations, its wars, the various civilizations and how they adapt their strategies to modernity. Chapters three, seven, eight and nine were dedicated to show the readers how the Jihadists viewed the 20th century, WWII, the cold war, the choices they made and the different options they developed as Salafists, Wahabis, Khumeinists, regarding the Soviets, Israel, the West, and the Muslim regions. The bottom line was to show that there were no sheer emotional and simplistic reactions to crisis, but rather focused, integrated, and complex policies and strategic objectives. This assertion goes against the dominant theories of the past, which never went away yet, that in essence Islamist attitudes are created by Western policies. Future Jihad precisely argues otherwise: Jihadi ideologies are sui generis. They were developed before current international relations were formalized in laws, survived the latter and have projected their aims regardless of Western or non-Western policies. Certainly, diplomatic, economic and military acts by greater and small powers impact the evolution, decisions and plans of the Islamists. Policies affect other policies, but Jihadism and its various trees and branches, is a being of its own. It relates to the evolution of political Islam historically and can only be explained from inside out.

The third objective of the book was to describe the Jihadi war against the Soviet Union during the Cold War and against the United States and some of its allies after the cold war, leading to 9/11 and beyond.

The final objective in producing Future Jihad was an attempt to analyze the specific conflict between al Qaeda and the United States. In chapter twelve I examined the root causes of America ‘s failure showing that the breaches were not simple security flaws but rather systemic malfunctioning at the national security level. In Chapter thirteen, I suggested a model of what could have been a historically successful Jihadist offensive worldwide and its consequences in the US had a 9/11 of a greater dimension occurred years later instead.

The fifth objective was to offer modest guidelines and prescriptions to face off with the growing dangers of Salafi and Khomeinist ideologically based terrorism. While geopolitical threats to regional and world peace come from classical radical regimes, such as Tehran's and to a certain extent Damascus' and Khartoum's, another type of threats is represented by the capacity of Jihadi networks to transform moderate or stable Muslim Governments into radical ones, with a full use of their resources.

Finally I made another set of recommendations to educate the public, the Government's agencies and the media as to the mind, visions, strategies and if possible the tactics of the Jihadists. The prescription aimed at developing a "global resistance" against Jihad-Terrorism, both within the Arab Muslim world and within the international community. I am glad to announce that the paperback Future Jihad: Terrorist Strategies against the West is out in English and Spanish. Versions in other languages are expected in the near future.

The Jihadi counteroffensive

During 2005-2006, I had several important opportunities to address and interact with policy, legislative, media, community decision makers, experts and concerned citizens across the US and Europe, including in Paris, London, Brussels, Vienna, and Lisbon. In America, my book tour allowed me to discuss Future Jihad in Washington, New York, New Jersey, Chicago, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Miami and on many campuses nationwide. Since its launching I have received many emails and messages from bright readers of the book as well as viewers of and listeners to talk shows. These inputs were sociologically critical for the assessment of the public understanding of the bigger picture. I was also able to conduct briefings at the European Parliament, the US Congress, the United Nations Security Council, Interpol and other international bodies. In addition, my participation in Arab media forums including on al Jazeera, al Hurra, al Arabiya and other outlets provided me the opportunity to interact with ideologues, academics and activists from all sides, and particularly of relevance the self declared Jihadi camp. In addition, my interactions with democracy groups and intellectuals from the Arab and Muslim world on the one hand, and frequent visits to and learning process from the various Islamists -particularly Jihadists- chat rooms online, helped my analysis of Future Jihad refines itself and develop ballistics of knowledge in the clashing strategies of the so-called War on Terrorism. My main post-book conclusion is as follow: The Jihadists are -Salafists and Khumeinists alike- on a worldwide counter offensive with their perceived enemies and they are planning on widening it, rationalize it, and render it irreversible. Here are the various sketches from present situations into future trends:

In the paperback version of 2006 I discussed the specific issue of Bin Laden and al Qaeda and their importance in the global Jihadi movement; their centrality but also their relativity as well. One concept I noted particularly the so-called Hudna (truce) proposed several times by the group, particularly to Europe. The Hudna is indicative of Jihadi geopolitics, often misunderstood in the West. Another concept I revisited is the worldwide web of Jihadism, stressing its ideological but also its political nature. While loose and full of fragments, I believe it has a centrality that escapes the classical perception of Western defense parameters.

Europe's Jihads

Following my several field trips to Europe and monitoring of Jihadi deployments on the continent I analyzed the global strategies of the Salafists in specific zones: the United Kingdom; Western European battlefields: Belgium, Netherlands, Scandinavia, Germany in addition to the southern European zone including Spain and Italy; finally France (which I consider as one zone by itself). Two other European zones are Eastern Europe and the Balkans with different outlooks and geopolitical Jihadi realities. The European Jihads are ahead of their cross Atlantic parallels. The ideological mobilization that surfaced during the so called "Cartoons Jihad" is an important indicator of the wide spread of Wahabi and Salafi teachings across the continent.

The world's battlefields

Russia's battlefields with the Salafists have reached a national security level of threat, both from Chechnya and through its southern borders with Central Asia . The Asian battlefields have grown geometrically in intensity and scope: Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Malaysia to the East; Bengla Desh, India, Pakistan and Afghanistan to the West; and Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan in the center. Asian Jihad is gradually including a Chinese Jihad in the old Muslim Sin Kiang and spills over to Australia south bound and to the Greater Middle East West bound. Aussie is facing two threats: One regional to its north, linked to the success and advance of Salafi forces in Indonesia and the Philippines, and the other through domestic infiltration by radical Islamists, similar to the global patterns of penetration in the West. In Africa, the Jihadi battlefields are spreading rapidly from Somalia to Darfur all the way to the sub-Saharan countries of Chad, Mauritania, Ivory Coast and Nigeria.

The Greater Middle East

But it is in the Greater Middle East, from Morocco to Iran, where the central battlefields will be decisive. Iraq ‘s Sunni triangle – contrary to the mediatized wisdom in the West – is only the tip of the Jihadi iceberg. Al Qaeda in Iraq has "chosen" the battlefield to pin down US central forces while Salafist and Khomeinist forces are on the offensive in other spots. Had America not chosen Iraq as a ground for confrontation, the Jihadists would have chosen another terrain for the clash. It is ironic that mainstream scholarship in the West is blind to this reality. In the Arabian Peninsula, al Qaeda and its wider web of Wahabis patiently await their moment for the ultimate leap. In North Africa, the combat Salafists are omnipresent, and from there on, dispatch their cells into Europe . In Egypt and among Palestinians, the Brotherhoods and Hamas have created strongholds; and in Turkey the soft Islamists are taking all the time needed to deliver their battle of ideas against the seculars. In addition to the Salafi surge, the Iranian-led axis of Jihadism from Tehran to southern Lebanon, with the Syrian regime in the center wages its own campaign. Ahmedinijad's regional offensive – with nuclear ambitions and terrorism tools – is only the most recent expression of the older Khamanei's regime. The "axis" has mounted a separate state-sponsored Jihad: Hamas and PIJ in Palestine, HizbAllah in Lebanon, Muqtada al Sadr in Iraq and cells around the Middle East and within the West. The question of Terrorism in the Greater Middle East isn't confined to the Arab-Israeli conflict anymore. The latter has become a consequence of the region's Jihadism, not the other way around.

Latin American Ambitions of the Jihadists

From Venezuela under Chavez's populist power and from Bolivia's new "Castrist" leadership the Jihadist bases are growing to meet the tri-border emerging "Emirate" of the tips of Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay. Al Qaeda and HizbAllah are racing to outnumber the cells of each other organizations. From the south of the Americas, the Jihadi thrust will be reaching the US mainly through the Mexican border and deep into the heart of the country.

Canada's Jihadists

With the arrest of cells during the summer of 2006 in Toronto, Canada has entered the Global sphere of Jihadi penetration. Modeled after their American counterparts, the Canadian Jihadists are as determined and prepared to strike and enflame the country. In fact North America seems to have become a one continental hub of operations. Cells form on both sides of the border and interact with each other. For example the arrest of the Georgia cell last year showed a Montreal connection. The same type of radical literature is found in American and Canadian cities, and interestingly enough the Islamist radical activism operates on a "North American" level.

America's Jihad mutates

As I argued in the first edition of Future Jihad (Terrorist Strategies against America ), the Mohammed Atta type of Terrorists is not in the majority anymore. Today, 2006-2007, the new Jihadists are mostly US-born, speak the language well, are educated and operates within the system. And more importantly, they benefit from a militant political shield, which protect them as they grow ideologically and organizationally. In the past few months more evidence is emerging on the deep influence the pro-Jihadist groups have developed inside the country. The wall protecting the spread of the Wahabi-Salafi, and even Khomeinist ideologies in America has become close to be legal, after it has thickened politically. The mutation of Jihadism inside the US is the single most important challenge the country will face in this decade and maybe beyond. The incapacitation of the US Government in its counter Jihadist efforts has become the central breach in national security.

The War of Ideas: The Future of the War on Terror

Hence, it has also become clear that whoever would be able to shape the minds of Americans as to identify the enemy will win the War on Terror. And whoever can show the US public or bar it from seeing the reality of the Jihadi wars against democracies will make or break the War on Terror and its length.

To obtain a signed copy of Future Jihad (hard copy and paperback) go to www.futurejihad.com or www.walidphares.com. For media review copies contact info@futurejihad.com.

— Dr Walid Phares is a senior fellow with the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies (FDD) in Washington, D.C., and director of the Future Terrorism Project of the FDD. He is a visiting fellow with the European Foundation for Democracy in Brussels. His most recent book is Future Jihad: Terrorist Strategies against the West.
    Dr Phares holds degrees in law and political science from Saint Joseph University and the Lebanese University in Beirut, a Masters in international law from the Universite de Lyons in France and a Ph.D. in international relations and strategic studies from the University of Miami.
    He has taught and lectured at numerous universities worldwide, practiced law in Beirut , and served as publisher of Sawt el-Mashreq and Mashrek International. He has taught Middle East political issues, ethnic and religious conflict, and comparative politics at Florida Atlantic University until 2006.
    Dr. Phares has written seven books on the Middle East and published hundreds of articles in newspapers and scholarly publications such as Global Affairs, Middle East Quarterly, the Journal of South Asian and Middle East Studies and the Journal of International Security. He has appeared on CNN, MSNBC, Fox News, NBC, CBS, ABC, PBS, BBC, al Jazeera, al Hurra, as well as on radio broadcasts.
    Aside from serving on the boards of several national and international think tanks and human rights associations, Dr. Phares has testified before the US Senate Subcommittees on the Middle East and South East Asia, the House Committees on International Relations and Homeland Security and regularly conducts congressional and State Department briefings, and he was the author of the memo that introduced UNSCR 1559 in 2004.

Visit Dr. Phares on the web at walidphares.com and defenddemocracy.org.

© 2007 Walid Phares

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